Mozambique 5 Feb: Can Nyusi get a grip on his party, country, and economy?
Good afternoon from Zitamar News. As we write, the Central Committee of Mozambique’s ruling party, Frelimo, is meeting at the Frelimo school in Matola on a day that observers believe could be make-or-break for Nyusi’s presidency.
The 223-strong body could decide to go beyond the agenda proposed by the party’s top steering committee, the Comissão Política, and propose new people for some of the party’s most senior positions - even within the Comissão Política itself. At last year’s meeting, Armando Guebuza stood down from the party presidency; but Nyusi still has work to do to fully inherit control of the party from his predecessor.
SEE: All eyes on Frelimo as Central Committee meets in Matola
If Nyusi does succeed in using the meeting to get a grip on his party, he must then get a grip on the country’s main problems. Conflict with Renamo appears to be stepping up ahead of the opposition movement’s promises to take power in half the country next month. Meanwhile, Nyusi’s administration is also grappling with the economic crisis.
Later today, credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s is expected to release its latest opinion on Mozambique’s creditworthiness, which could contain clues as to how the finance ministry, central bank, and state investment bank BNI are progressing with plans to restructure the EMATUM deal.
SEE: Moody’s, S&P mull Mozambique rating as $100m EMATUM payment looms
The other main rating agency, Moody’s, had staff in Maputo this week talking to the central bank and finance ministry in preparation for a rating action expected in the coming weeks.
Both rating agencies’ decisions should also reveal what they think of the IMF’s recent upgraded projections for Mozambique’s gas production over the next decade - projections which a number of global gas market experts told Zitamar this week are very optimistic.
But the world’s oil and gas majors are still interested in Mozambique. Exxon Mobil, which won three exploration blocks in the 5th auction round last year, is the subject of fresh rumours that it wants to buy Anadarko. Yesterday, Club of Mozambique reported that Eni was ready to sell its project to Exxon and quit Mozambique entirely - but Zitamar’s sources tell us that rumour is wide of the mark. Eni has long been looking to flog up to half its 50% stake in Area 4, and the US supermajor has been into the company’s data rooms. But the Italian oil major, also a winner in the latest oil round, is not selling its stake entirely.
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Have a great weekend.