Mozambique 28 April 2017: Waiting for the showdown
Good morning. Kroll has a new deadline on its report into the hidden debts, having sought and won yet another extension last week - but the ceasefire holding in the centre of the country will run out this Friday unless, as seems certain, it is extended or made permanent by Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama.
One pre-condition for that to happen was agreed last week. President Filipe Nyusi said his forces will vacate their bases in Gorongosa, one of which will be converted into a joint government-Renamo ceasefire monitoring centre.
SEE: Mozambique peace monitors to work from old Renamo base in Gorongosa
Progress towards peace is strengthening Nyusi’s hand within Frelimo ahead of the showdown that seems inevitable once the Kroll report does finally come out. Last week, parliament voted to adopt the guarantees for the ProIndicus and MAM debt onto the government’s accounts - widely reported, in Zitamar elsewhere, as ‘legalising’ them. However, that reading is being contested.
SEE: Mozambique ruling party votes to legalise secret debt guarantees
Another showdown will have to happen with Mozambique’s creditors once the report comes out, too. With the government, IMF, and creditors currently engaged in a bout of shadow-boxing, we analyse who might make the next move.
SEE: Mozambique, lenders, and IMF consider next move once Kroll report finally emerges
It seems likely that bilateral lenders will also be involved in Mozambique’s restructuring, following Zitamar’s revelation that the government is seeking easier terms on a loan provided by Brazil’s state development bank BNDES for Nacala Airport.
SEE: Mozambique in talks to restructure overdue debt to Brazilian state bank
The ambitions for Nacala Airport are laid out in a competition launched last week to allocate Mozambique’s international flight routes. They are some way from the reality of the ‘white elephant’ project that currently just runs three flights a week to Maputo - if you’re lucky.
SEE: Mozambique seeks airlines for ambitious list of local and intercontinental destinations
The financing of Nacala Airport seems inevitably caught up in Brazil’s ‘Car Wash’ corruption scandals of the past decade, which also include the dodgy purchase of Embraer planes by Mozambican airline LAM. The transport minister at the time, Paulo Zucula, has been accused of foul play in both deals - but told Zitamar he denies any wrongdoing.
SEE: Mozambique ex transport minister denies involvement in Brazilian corruption
And finally, one of the most sought-after logistics contracts in Mozambique - to take Syrah’s graphite from the mine at Balama to the port of Nacala - has been won by South African truckers Grindrod.
SEE: Grindrod wins Syrah graphite logistics contract in northern Mozambique
Have a great week.