Mozambique 18 March: The smallest boats cast the longest shadow
Good afternoon. On Wednesday this week, maritime authorities announced they had decided to confiscate a large boat they caught fishing illegally for tuna in December 2015. Though the capture of ‘Nessa 7’ did not make the news at the time, this week’s confiscation was reported both by state news agency AIM and by Noticias, and was the main topic of conversation during Ràdio Moçambique’s ‘Caffé da Manhã’ morning phone-in.
It might not be entirely irrational to think that the timing of the news had something to do with the government’s attempt to restructure the EMATUM deal, in which it guaranteed $850 million worth of expensive, dollar-denominated debt to fund the purchase of a tuna fishing fleet and maritime patrol vessels - and, it has been alleged, more besides. Even before the final restructuring offer was made, ratings agencies S&P and Moody’s judged it reason enough to downgrade Mozambique’s borrower status.
SEE: S&P, Moody’s downgrade conflict-hit Mozambique ahead of ‘tuna bond’ restructure
Yesterday, details of what the government is offering the EMATUM investors were made public. Finance minister Adriano Maleiane aims to cut annual repayments from the current $200 million, to around $60 million, with a promise to repay the principal - almost $700 million - in a ‘bullet’ repayment in 2023. If the investors agree, the restructure will be a major step towards clearing up the public finance mess left to Maleiane by his predecessor, Manuel Chang, under the presidency of Armando Guebuza.
SEE: Mozambique sweetens EMATUM offer and waits for investors to bite
There’s an interesting footnote to AIM’s report on the confiscation of the Nessa 7. It will now be turned into a patrol boat for use by the maritime authorities - having itself been captured by the Antillas Reefer, another boat that had been captured, confiscated, and re-purposed. Since this method seems so effective, the question again presents itself: what did Mozambique need the $850 million EMATUM money for?
Joseph Hanlon argued recently that the current politico-military crisis is another legacy of the Guebuza years. This week, an Italian diplomat flew into town to remind us of the peace deal brokered in the Chissano era. Mario Raffaelli, Italy’s chief mediator on the 1992 Rome Accords, will try and get Dhlakama and Nyusi talking - although so far Renamo says it won’t budge on its mediator demands.
SEE: Italian diplomat “could be important” in solving current crisis – Renamo
The government will have been embarrassed, to say the least, by the publication last Friday of a shocking interview with a man claiming to be a member of the police rapid reaction unit, the UIR. He said his missions have included assassinating members of the opposition and facilitating election fraud in 2014. The article has now been translated into English and is worth a read.
SEE: Confessions of a Mozambican hitman: 'This person in the photo should be shot'
Further evidence of election fraud was presented to an audience in London on Wednesday evening by Joseph Hanlon and Johan Alback, a statistician at the London School of Economics. They reckon they can guess at the level of fraud that took place, by using statistical methods - and conclude there has been “fraud, but not massive fraud”. However, they go on to say, “the growing fraud suggests that some in Frelimo are increasingly worried that the party cannot win an honest election. Afonso Dhlakama is convinced that he won all five elections, and the obvious misconduct only adds to that belief.”
If the fighting really is over resource wealth in northern Mozambique, as Hanlon suggests, it is tempting to conclude that it’s a case of two bald men fighting over a comb.
This week Zitamar reported that Norway’s Green Resources made a $48 million loss in its 20th year of operation, and has yet to return a dividend to its investors. Meanwhile, an Australian investment bank has been appointed to consider how best to dispose of Triton’s graphite mines in Cabo Delgado.
SEE: Norwegian forestry firm’s losses mount after Mozambique acquisitions
SEE: Investment bank appointed on Triton graphite mines sale
The week has belonged to big boats, however. Tomorrow, Zambian President Edgar Lungo will join President Nyusi in inaugurating the Turkish ‘powership’ in Nacala port that will generate 100 MW for Zambia while fortifying electricity supply in northern Mozambique. Earlier this week, the Port of Maputo proudly announced the arrival of its biggest ever ship - the 292 metre ‘Golden Kathrine’.
But it’s EMATUM’s small fishing boats that still cast the longest shadow.
Have a great weekend.