Mozambique 12 April: Can rule of law be re-established in Mozambique
Good afternoon. Frelimo’s annual Central Committee meeting kicks off in Matola tomorrow as the country faces crises on all sides. The delegates must be longing for the heady days of their extraordinary one-day meeting back in February, when all they had to worry about was a looming civil war.
Since last Friday’s Zitamar Newsletter, where our principal concern was the financial abyss on which the country now teeters, two high profile assassinations have shocked the country. The first came on Saturday night, at around 23:30, when a ‘txopela’ (a motorised rickshaw) was riddled with bullets in Beira. Among the three victims was Jose Manuel, a high profile member of Renamo and that party’s nominee to President Nyusi’s National Defence Council.
Then last night, Marcelino Vilanculo, the public prosecutor preparing a case to charge Dinish Satar with masterminding a string of kidnappings in Maputo, was shot dead as he arrived home in the early evening. Dinish Satar is the nephew of Nini Satar, the man released from prison in 2014 after serving part of his sentence for ordering the killing of campaigning journalist Carlos Cardoso in 2000.
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Vilanculo’s killing comes almost two years on from that of judge Dinis Silica, shot dead in front of a police station in central Maputo the day before he was to rule on Manish Cantilal, another man accused of involvement in the wave of kidnappings in Mozambique.
If Mozambique is ever going to drag itself back from becoming a gangster state, it needs to act now. Without decisive action, the task will only get harder as more power is consolidated in the hands of the wrong people.
Depressingly, it may be beyond the power of the current government to return Mozambique to the rule of law. But it could at least show that it is trying. Why, for instance, was Marcelino Vilanculo not under 24-hour police protection?
The police force has a new commander in Julio Jane, but there is as yet no evidence of change. Jane, brought in to the police from the armed forces, is probably concentrating his efforts on containing Renamo, a job which the government cannot entrust to the army for fear of admitting that Mozambique is at war.
Another sign of the war that the government is trying in vain to avoid is the continued exodus of refugees to Malawi. Today, Zitamar reports that refugees from Zambezia province are joining their compatriots from Tete in seeking asylum across the border.
FREE TO READ: Mozambique refugee crisis widens as inquiries are blocked and postponed
Today’s article on the refugee crisis is outside of the paywall, as we will do once or twice a week. For the rest of our content, however, you need to buy a subscription to Zitamar News - which you can do by clicking on the banner below:
Paying subscribers can read our analysis today on what the future may hold for the offshore gas projects in the Rovuma Basin. ExxonMobil is expected to buy part of Eni’s offshore Area 4 project, but the world’s largest oil and gas company is not expected to stop there.
FOR MORE, SEE: Analysis: What is Exxon’s end game in the Rovuma Basin?
If and when those deals are done, it should mean a big payday for the tax authority - which this week said it is looking forward to big receipts from Mitsui’s investment in Vale’s coal mines, too. Moreover, it is still chasing revenues from Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Riversdale in 2011, we report.
SEE: Mozambique tax authority eyes coal mine M&A payday
Another coal miner in Tete, Jindal, appears to have found a way forward in partnership with Cahora Bassa hydroelectric plant to provide locals with clean drinking water - three years after the project was due to be installed. It sounds like it won’t be the end of community relations issues in the area, however.
FOR MORE: Jindal and HCB unblock long-delayed Mozambique water project
Have a great week.