Mozambique 11 April 17: Competing leaks
Good afternoon. Two significant leaks of documents last week provide clues to the strife within Mozambique’s ruling party Frelimo at the moment. On Thursday, Zitamar reported on a list of people - including, most notably, former President Armando Guebuza - whose bank records are being analysed as part of investigations into the ProIndicus, EMATUM and MAM scandal.
SEE: Leaked doc suggests investigation into former President Guebuza’s finances
Then over the weekend, more leaks emerged, apparently showing what had been long suspected - that Guebuza’s successor, Filipe Nyusi, is himself implicated as an architect of the deals. Nyusi’s supporters point out that the latest leaks do not implicate him in any theft or fraud - but it was the fact that the three companies borrowed $2 billion with secret state guarantees that has been found unconstitutional, caused the IMF and donors to withdraw support, and precipitated Mozambique’s acute economic crisis.
SEE: Latest Mozambique leak puts Nyusi at centre of ProIndicus scandal
The Kroll report into the deals should be presented to the Attorney General at the end of this month, who will then decide if any Mozambicans should be prosecuted for their roles in the deals. Frelimo’s party congress in October will largely decide how the party faces elections in 2018 and 2019 - with Nyusi’s chance to run for a second term as president to be decided by a meeting of the Central Committee in Q4 2017 or Q1 2018. Those involved in the hidden debt deals clearly have a lot to lose - and seem to be losing faith that they will necessarily be protected by their party colleagues.
Amid the acute political uncertainty, the economy is returning to a semblance of stability, guided by central bank governor Rogério Zandamela who even felt able to loosen monetary policy this week - although fresh inflationary pressures are still working their way through the economy.
SEE: Bank of Mozambique cuts lending rate but more inflation is in the pipeline
The currency continues to strengthen and new measures to ensure the stability of the banking sector will add to confidence in Mozambique’s economy.
SEE: Bank of Mozambique tightens bank capital requirements
Reforming the economy at a time of crisis does mean, however, that some of the buffers protecting the poorest are being removed. Bread and chapa prices are on the rise, and it remains to be seen if the government has a plan to mitigate popular resentment that that will bring.
SEE: Mozambique minibus drivers want fares to rise like bread
Finally, a reminder that the conflict in central Mozambique is not over for some. More than 5,400 refugees living a precarious existence in the border regions of Zimbabwe are still unwilling to return to Mozambique until there is lasting peace that they can believe in.
SEE: Zimbabwe and UN aim to relocate 5,400 Mozambican refugees
Have a great week.