Government and central bank inflation forecasts diverge

Does one know something that the other doesn't?

Good afternoon. If the Bank of Mozambique believes that its monetary policy has caused inflation to peak, the government apparently does not agree. Prime Minister Adriano Maleiane — who used to be finance minister, and before that spent many years as governor of the central bank — told parliament on Friday that his government is predicting higher inflation next year than this year.

But perhaps the divergent forecasts have to do with disparities in the information each institution has at its disposal. Maleiane also told parliament that the government would stimulate the private sector by spending more than $2 billion on goods, services and investments next year. If that represents an economic stimulus compared with 2022, as Maleiane seemed to suggest, then perhaps that is a good reason to expect more inflationary pressures.

We had expected to be able to bring you news of Renamo’s new secretary general in this newsletter; an appointment is supposed to be confirmed today at a meeting of the party’s National Council. Integrity Magazine is confidently reporting that Maria Angelina Dique Enoque is the chosen one; but nothing official has emerged yet. Meanwhile, leader Ossufo Momade is also reportedly facing an internal mutiny from party members in Beira.

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Agenda:

• Today: Meeting of Renamo’s National Council, in Maputo

• Tomorrow-Thursday: President Nyusi at USA-Africa summit in Washington, DC

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Today’s headlines:

• Government expects inflation to rise further next year

• University staff on strike

• Mozambique to ratify free trade area agreement by end of year, commerce minister says

• Revise maritime law to make cabotage viable, ministry says

• Cholera outbreak in Niassa kills seven

Today’s front pages in Maputo. Photo © Faizal Chauque / Zitamar News