A coalition to challenge Frelimo?

Also: Cabo Ligado's special report on five years of conflict in northern Mozambique

Good afternoon. There is less than a year to go until the municipal elections scheduled for October 11, 2023, and the players are increasingly engaged in organising themselves in preparation. This week the spotlight fell on opposition parties that appear interested in moving towards a coalition aimed at toppling Mozambique's ruling party Frelimo.  

On Tuesday, the largest opposition party, Renamo, took the initiative to convene other opposition parties to discuss the idea. Ten smaller parties without seats in parliament attended the meeting and showed willingness to collaborate. A commission was created to work further on the initiative.

A surprise for some, but expected by others, was the non-participation of the second largest opposition party, MDM, in the meeting. It is not clear yet whether it was due to lack of interest or whether party leader Lutero Simango is waiting for the party's decision. Some in MDM believe that the party should go it alone to take advantage of Renamo’s current credibility crisis, with many Renamo members and supporters — particularly in both parties’ traditional heartland of central Mozambique — frustrated with the leadership of Ossufo Momade.

The split between Renamo and MDM works in favour of Frelimo, who benefits from the split votes. It is up to Renamo to convince MDM to enter into a coalition. If Renamo advances only with the support of the small parties, it will make little difference to anything, since they carry no weight on the national political scene.

The moves come in a context in which Renamo has no secretary-general, and other important members of the party leadership have recently been dismissed. But this means there is an opportunity for renewal. There is solid information indicating that Venâncio Mondlane could be the next secretary general, stepping into the role vacated by André Magibire. Mondlane is a dynamic and charismatic young man, who has always advocated a coalition between the opposition parties to bring down Frelimo. He began his political career at the MDM — coming close to being elected mayor of Maputo with that party.

The new secretary general should be nominated by Ossufo Momade and ratified by the party's National Council at a meeting later this year, Renamo spokesman Jose Manteigas said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the National Elections Commission has already submitted to the government a proposal to change the date of voter registration, which was previously scheduled to start on February 20. According to CIP's political bulletin, this is mainly due to the fact that the original date falls in the rainy season, but also due to the late disbursement of the money needed for the process. After the cabinet approves it, the proposal should be submitted to the Mozambican parliament.

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Agenda:

• Today: Mozambican Ministry of Land and the Environment and the Institute for Multiparty Democracy hold a conference on resource sustainability and climate change resilience

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The latest from Zitamar News:

Cabo Ligado: Special Report on Five Years of Conflict in Northern Mozambique

Featuring:

• Five years of the insurgency — a summary

• From Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa to Islamic State Mozambique

  • By Peter Bofin, Cabo Ligado

• Five Years of State Actors in Cabo Delgado

  • By Peter Bofin, Ana Marco, and Elham Kazemi, Cabo Ligado

• Accountability or Impunity: Beyond Five Years of Conflict 

  • Zenaida Machado, Human Rights Watch

“…the insurgents will in the short and medium term remain one of the most significant political actors in northern Mozambique, shaping mining operations in the south, decision-making on natural gas in the north, but most importantly the livelihoods, and lives, of the people of Cabo Delgado.” From: Cabo Ligado: Special Report on Five Years of Conflict in Northern Mozambique

From the Zitamar Live Blog:

The verdict in the Mozambican 'hidden debts' court case will take five days to deliver in full, starting next Wednesday, 30 November, a spokesperson for the Maputo City court said this morning

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Past the paywall:

💥 Conflict updates

• In Montepuez and Nangade districts

Also in the news:

• Mozambique blocks publication of IMF report

• Total prepares to restart work on Mozambique LNG next year

• Eni in talks with government to expand its FLNG portfolio

• Nyusi announces defensive cordon in Palma

• More regulation needed to increase investment in off-grid energy systems